Robert Lussier, COPAFS Representative, Government Statistics Section

The Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics (COPAFS) acts as an advocate for the development and dissemination of high-quality federal statistics. Member organizations include professional associations, businesses, research institutes, and others interested in federal statistics. Through COPAFS, members have an opportunity to review and affect issues such as timeliness, quality, confidentiality, and the relevance of data. COPAFS holds quarterly meetings, the last one taking place on June 3. Detailed minutes and copies of the overheads used by the presenters can be found on the COPAFS website.

As part of his executive director’s report, Ed Spar noted that while the fiscal year 2011 (FY11) budgets have passed, it is not yet clear how funding will be distributed. Amid all the question marks, indications are that the U.S. Census Bureau will receive funding for annual updates to the Master Address File and expansion of the American Community Survey sample. There is concern about what happens if such funding is not provided for 2012. Late word is that the Stat Abstract may take the form of links to data on the web, rather than a finished publication.

Spar observed that the situation at National Center for Health Statistics has improved somewhat, as they have some supplemental funding from the Affordable Care Act. They should be able to maintain and possibly upgrade the National Health Interview Survey and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

The Office of Government Ethics has proposed a change to a rule that limits the ability of federal employees to serve in official capacities in nonprofit organizations. This includes the permission to serve as board members. Spar commented that it could be helpful to organizations such as COPAFS.

Sen. Tom Coburn issued a report in which he charges the National Science Foundation (NSF) with waste and mismanagement. Coburn denigrates the role of social sciences and calls for eliminating the NSF’s Social, Behavioral, and Economics Directorate.

Spar then introduced Adrienne Pilot of the Council of Economic Advisors, who described an initiative that would permit additional data sharing between the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). As Pilot described it, the Census Bureau’s business register is commingled with Internal Revenue Service (IRS) files, and therefore falls under IRS restrictions. The Census and BLS business lists could be brought together and the differences reconciled to produce an improved database. The next step is to identify legislation to which this measure can be attached.

2012 Census of Agriculture

Cynthia Clark of the National Agricultural Statistics Service explained that the agency has two major funding line items: the agricultural estimates program and the census of agriculture (taken every five years). The 2011 budget came in with less funding than in 2010. The census is moving ahead with the basic plan, but the estimates program took a significant hit.

In planning the 2012 census, input has been sought from numerous users. Internal users have called for information about animal grazing, rented land by utilization, and expanded information on renewable energy. Recommendations from external users include expanded information about agroforestry, counts of farms that sell to intermediary outlets, a count of on-farm packing facilities, and farm use of broadband Internet.

Data collection tests are taking place. Clark described a number of tests related to increasing response. With the results of these tests in mind, 2012 data collection will include autodial or postcard pre-census notification, online web reporting, initial mail-out of questionnaires, postcard or autodial reminder, a second questionnaire mailing, and the use of certified mailing to significant operations.

Milestones include online web reporting available November, initial questionnaire mailing in December, data collection through May of 2013, and the release of results in early 2014.

Population Considerations for the Nuclear Field

Danny Smith, a consultant in the nuclear field, described events that took place at three nuclear facilities: the Shoreham nuclear plant on Long Island Sound (about 60 miles from Manhattan), the Fukushima Daiichi plant on the east coast of Japan, and the Chernobyl plant in Ukraine.

Rethinking Urban-Rural and the Barriers Between Statistical and Programmatic Uses

Michael Ratcliffe of the U.S. Census Bureau explained that the bureau has not been taking programmatic uses into account when developing statistical geographic area concepts or delineating areas. The purpose was solely the tabulation and presentation of data. However, the Census Bureau is increasingly aware of the need to consider how areas are used.

Reviewing recent urban/rural classifications, Ratcliffe noted they tend to be dichotomous, with rural and nonmetropolitan defined as residual categories. Looking to the future, Ratcliffe said thought is being given to the development of an urban-rural continuum that would better reflect the variety of urban, suburban, exurban, and rural landscapes, as well as the functional relationships between urban areas. The meaningful subdivision of larger agglomerations is another topic for consideration.

John Cromartie of the Economic Research Service called the idea of a single definition needlessly limiting and argued that research on rural issues requires different perspectives. In fact, dozens of definitions exist, including those established by the Census Bureau, Office of Management and Budget, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and others. The differences between these definitions boil down to two questions. First, for any entity, where is the boundary between urban and rural? Second, what is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

On the question of boundary, Cromartie explained that urban boundaries can be based on administrative areas (such as cities), land use (the view from an airplane), or economic factors (such as commuting or labor force). On the question of minimum population size, Cromartie noted that any rural definition includes some towns and villages below a chosen population threshold. The Census Bureau has long used 2,500 as the urban population threshold. Cromartie argued for higher urban-size thresholds. He also noted that USDA has adjusted its threshold upward over the years, but not the Census Bureau.

Cromartie concluded by suggesting we improve the efficiency of federal programs by adopting multiple urban/rural definitions, targeted to multiple purposes, and that the choice of definition be driven by the objectives of the program or application.

Overview of New Interactive BEA Tables

Thomas Dail of the BEA described a soon-to-be-released web-based data access tool that provides enhanced access to BEA data that have so far been available only through five separate applications.

Benefits of the new system include data access with a single tool that enables more efficient table creation, downloading to more formats, customized tables and charts, saving and exporting charts, and forwarding tables via social media.

Dail demonstrated the system and wrapped up by announcing that version 2.0 is being developed for 2012 and will provide enhanced features, such as the ability to perform calculations.