What are the human health implications of climate change? There is by now a well-established body of evidence about the direct effects of increasing temperature (e.g., heat stroke), but is that the full story? It is also possible that air pollution patterns may change as a result of the changing climate, especially ozone, whose production is stimulated by hot weather.

In work started at the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI) and later completed with colleagues at North Carolina State University, Howard Chang studied the effect of simultaneous changes in temperature and ozone, using simulations from climate models. Rather than run the model multiple times under different scenarios (a time-consuming process), Chang and his colleagues devised a statistical approach that saves computation time and allows researchers to estimate the uncertainty in their projections. As a result, they found significant increases in projected mortality in the southeastern United States during the period 2041–2050 compared with 2000 levels.

The resulting paper, written by Chang, Jingwen Zhou, and Montserrat Fuentes, was awarded the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH) Best Paper Award 2014. Their paper, “Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States,” received the third prize in the Articles category.

Visit the IJERPH website for more information about the award or to read the paper.