Initiatives beyond the NCVS include surveys of local sources to get an early read on changes in advance of the Uniform Crime Reports and parallel surveys of law enforcement and the public to better understand police-public interactions. Consideration also is being given to the redesign of the State Court Processing Survey and the National Judicial Reporting Program—perhaps combining the two to reduce costs. Sinclair also described initiatives related to indigent defense, the conversion of criminal history records into research databases, and the surveys related to the Prison Rape Elimination Act. He wrapped up his presentation by describing the improved and more user-friendly BJS web site and saying they are looking forward to user input on it.

Demographic Analysis for the Census

Victoria Velkoff of the U.S. Census Bureau pointed out the long history of demographic analysis (DA) at the bureau, but said they are working on changes for 2010 and looking for feedback. Velkoff also explained that the DA estimates are unique among bureau estimates in that they are not based on census counts. She said they are important because they provide the first measures of census coverage.

Jason Devine, also of the U.S. Census Bureau, described DA as one of two methods the bureau uses to measure census coverage. The other is the micro-level, survey-based estimates that are based on case-by-case record linkages, as in the 2000 Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE). In contrast, DA is a macro-level approach that compares census population counts with estimates based on administrative data. The DA estimates are independent of the census counts. The 2010 DA estimates will build on the 2000 DA estimates, not the 2000 census counts.

The DA method tracks the size of population cohorts based on administrative data. Specifically, a population less than age 65 is estimated with the basic demographic accounting equation that adds births, subtracts deaths, adds immigrants, and subtracts emigrants. For a population aged 65 and above, the estimates reflect the Medicare count and an estimate of persons not enrolled in Medicare.

DA estimates measure coverage by single year of age, but are limited to national level and Black and non-Black race categories. The U.S. Census Bureau is researching the possibility of adding DA estimates of Hispanic and non-Hispanic, but the limited race/ethnic data collected in past administrative data makes this a challenge for older birth cohorts. The survey-based coverage estimates provide greater race and geographic detail, but involve their own challenges. Divine also contrasted the core DA with Demographic Benchmark Analysis (DBA), which compares estimates of population and housing against census counts for various geographic levels.

Devine then presented a number of slides illustrating 2000 DA results, such as population by age. The DA and census numbers are impressively close, but Devine pointed out differences—such as self-reported census age spikes for ages ending in 0 and 5—while the DA distributions are smooth. Other differences include the census undercount of population age 5 and its over abundance of persons around age 20.

For 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau will revise the 2000 DA estimates based on final 1999 and 2000 birth and death data, then add/subtract births/deaths for 2000–2010. Preliminary data on births and deaths for 2009 and 2010 will be used. Previous assumptions about the completeness of birth and death data are being reviewed. Population age 65 and above will again be based on Medicare enrollment data, with adjustments made for estimated under-enrollment.

When the 2000 census population count came in higher than the DA estimate, it led to questions about erroneous enumerations and the migration component of the DA estimates. For 2010, American Community Survey (ACS) data will contribute to the DA estimates of net international migration. Pending validation, the plan is to estimate immigration based on ACS data on residence one year ago, and foreign-born emigration would be estimated with a residual method based on Census 2000 and ACS data. Estimates of native migration are a challenge and still rely on previous research, but this is a small component. The bureau plans to look at IRS data for this purpose—the thinking being that native-born persons who emigrate should file a return the following April. There also has been talk of a CPS question asking about family members who have emigrated, but Velkoff observed that this approach does not seem to work well.

Velkoff and Devine wrapped up with a review of the 2010 census timeline:

• December 2010: Apportionment data released
• December 2010: DA estimates of coverage developed
• January–March 2011: Redistricting data released on flow basis
• 2012: Survey-based estimates of coverage released