This issue’s cover feature is a must-read for anyone who enjoys the educational guessing games known as prediction tournaments. And if you don’t enjoy them, because you don’t do very well in them, you’re in good company. As the article reveals, neither did the great Stephen Hawking!
Also included is the latest statistical thinking about a famous, 113-year-old tragedy. It’s widely assumed working-class passengers were more likely to perish when the Titanic sank, while the rich (and, per maritime convention, the women and children) survived. But, as you’ll see, it’s rather more complicated than that once you consider other variables.
Additionally, this issue tackles the rise of randomized, noncomparative trials, which are now being published in high-impact journals despite being described by experienced clinical trial statisticians as “absolutely terrible” and “disastrous.” The implications of this trend are massive.
May Highlights
The Monty Hall paradox and medicine–Understanding the classic puzzle via a practical application for medicine.
Book extract: Proof by Adam Kucharski–Learn how milk, beer, and tea led to statistical
breakthroughs in this extract from Adam Kucharski’s new book.
Profile: Mary Eleanor Spear–Learn about the career and legacy of a US government draughtswoman turned data visualization pioneer.
Access the digital version of Significance through the ASA membership portal.
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