The Empty Seat: A Commentary on the Absence of Black African Statisticians at the African International Conferences on Statistics (2014–2025)

Saralees Nadarajah, University of Manchester, and Samuel Manda, University of Pretoria

The list of the African International Conferences on Statistics from 2014 to 2025 reads like a hopeful journey across the continent. From the vibrant streets of Dakar to the highlands of Addis Ababa, the savannas of Limpopo, and the medinas of Marrakesh, the intention was clear: to create a pan-African platform for statistical discourse. The themes evolved, mirroring global trends—from “Recent Developments in Applied Statistics” to “Big Data,” “Artificial Intelligence,” and “Sustainable Development.” Yet, beneath this promising itinerary lies a persistent and uncomfortable silence, a gap not in the program, but in the room itself: the conspicuous lack of Black African statisticians.

This is not a commentary on the organizers, whose Herculean efforts kept the flame alive through a global pandemic. It is, instead, an observation on a deeply entrenched paradox. Conferences held on African soil, ostensibly for African development, often struggle to be populated by the very statisticians and data scientists who are the children of that soil. The “African” in the conference title risks becoming a geographical descriptor rather than a reflection of the demographic.

The Numbers That Don’t Add Up

If one were to compile a simple demographic survey of presenters and attendees at these gatherings, a stark picture would likely emerge. The attendees often comprise a significant contingent of international experts from Europe, North America, and Asia, alongside a diaspora of African academics based at Western institutions. The missing variable in this equation is the locally-based Black African statistician—the lecturer from the University of Yaoundé I, the government data analyst from Addis Ababa, or the PhD student from the University of Botswana.

The locations themselves highlight the issue. A conference in Jimma, Ethiopia, or Arsi, Ethiopia, requires a level of logistical and financial commitment that is a significant barrier for a Cameroonian or Senegalese academic. The costs—visa fees, international flights, accommodation, and conference registration—can easily exceed several months’ salary. While the organizers of the 9th Satellite Conference in Nairobi in 2025 are to be commended for explicitly naming “development in Africa” and inviting “emerging analytical tools,” the fundamental economic equation remains unsolved.

Beyond the Cost Barrier: A Crisis of Ecosystem

However, to frame this solely as a financial issue is to miss the deeper, structural crisis. The low attendance is a symptom of a weakened academic ecosystem. The statistician who isn’t at the conference in Gaborone or Hammamet is likely at their home institution, overwhelmed by teaching loads, starved of research funding, and disconnected from the high-speed internet required to even learn about funding opportunities. Their absence is not a choice, but a consequence of systemic underinvestment in higher education and research across much of the continent.

Furthermore, there is an often-unspoken issue of intellectual confidence and belonging. When the keynote addresses are consistently delivered by non-African experts, and the prevailing academic currency (publication in specific journals, citation indices) is defined elsewhere, a local researcher can feel like a perpetual student in their own field, rather than a peer. The conference becomes a place to listen and learn, not to challenge and collaborate. This dynamic can be profoundly disempowering, subtly signaling that the “advanced statistics” being discussed are generated elsewhere and merely “applied” in Africa, rather than being innovated from and by it.

The Post-COVID ‘New Normal’

The pandemic-induced hiatus from 2020 to 2023 offered a moment for reflection. When the conferences resumed in Marrakesh (2023) and Tunis (2024), the world had adopted virtual and hybrid models that, ironically, could have been the great equalizer. Yet, the reliance on in-person, high-fee international conferences risks re-entrenching the old inequalities. While virtual attendance can lower barriers, it does not solve the core problem of recognition and integration. Logging onto Zoom does not grant a young Malian data scientist the same networking opportunities as a coffee break in Hammamet.

The Way Forward: From Passive Attendance to Active Ownership

For the “African International Conference” to truly live up to its name, a radical shift in focus is required. It must transition from being a conference held in Africa to one that is fundamentally of and by Africa. This requires the following intentional, almost affirmative, action:

1. Decentralized Funding: Conference budgets must explicitly include large-scale, easily accessible travel and subsistence grants specifically for African-based statisticians, not just as an afterthought but as a primary budgetary line item.
2. Rotating Hubs and Satellite Events: The Nairobi model of a “satellite conference” is a promising start. Building on this, conferences could be designed as a series of interconnected, lower-cost regional hubs feeding into a central event, reducing travel burdens.
3. Redefining Excellence: Keynotes and plenary sessions must be intentionally populated with leading Black African statisticians working within African universities and institutions, showcasing home-grown research and methodologies.
4. Mentorship and Capacity Building: The conference cannot be a one-off event. It must be woven into a year-round program of virtual journal clubs, collaborative grant writing, and mentorship that pairs established statisticians (both within and outside the continent) with early-career researchers in Africa.

The conferences from 2014 to 2025 provide a valuable historical record of intent. The 9th conference in Nairobi stands at a crossroads. It can be the moment in which the conversation finally shifts. The alternative is a future where the AIC continues to be a mirror reflecting the global north’s image of African statistics, while the vibrant, struggling, and brilliant community of Black African statisticians remains in the shadows, their potential forever the subject of a presentation they were not there to give. The empty seat is not just an absence; it is a lost opportunity for the continent to solve its own complex problems.